Nobel Prize-Winning Physicist Predicts Humankind Won’t Survive Another 50 Years
Cold War estimates for a 1% chance of nuclear war each year seem low, Gross says. “The chances are more likely 2%. So that’s a 1-in-50 chance every year.”
David Gross: The expected lifetime, in the case of 2% [per year], is about 35 years. [The expected lifetime is the average time it would take to have had a nuclear war by then. It is calculated using similar equations as those used to determine the “half-life” of a radioactive material.]He points out that with the threat of climate change, “people have done something,” even though “It’s a much harder argument to make than about nuclear weapons.
Live Science: So what do you suggest as remedies to lower that risk?
Gross: We had something called the Nobel Laureate Assembly for reducing the risk of nuclear war in Chicago last year. There are steps, which are easy to take — for nations, I mean. For example, talk to each other. In the last 10 years, there are no treaties anymore. We’re entering an incredible arms race.
We have three super nuclear powers. People are talking about using nuclear weapons; there’s a major war going on in the middle of Europe; we’re bombing Iran; India and Pakistan almost went to war. OK, so that’s increased the chance [of nuclear war]. I would really like to have a solid estimate — it might be more, and I think I’m being conservative — but a 2% estimate [of nuclear war] in today’s crazy world.
Live Science: Do you think we’ll ever get to a place where we get rid of nuclear weapons?
Gross: We’re not recommending that. That’s idealistic, but yes, I hope so. Because if you don’t, there’s always some risk an AI 100 years from now [could launch nuclear weapons], but chances of [humanity] living, with this estimate, 100 years, is very small, and living 200 years is infinitesimal. So [the answer to] Fermi’s question of “Where are the civilizations, all the intelligent organisms around the galaxy, and why don’t they talk to us?” is that they’ve killed themselves…
There are now nine nuclear powers. Even three is infinitely more complicated than two. The agreements, the norms between countries, are all falling apart. Weapons are getting crazier. Automation, and perhaps even AI, will be in control of those instruments pretty soon… It’s going to be very hard to resist making AI make decisions because it acts so fast.
“We made them; we can stop them.”
Thanks to hwstar (Slashdot reader #35,834) for sharing the article.
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We put a has been game show host with a long history of crimes and rapes and pedophilia in charge of the largest nuclear arsenal on the planet and he tried to invade another country, made a fool of himself and his country, and he is still polling at over 40%.
Meanwhile half the planet thinks the world is less than 10,000 years old and that climate change is a hoax by big science.
I don’t see how we make it out of that kind of a mess. If we didn’t have nukes sure. But sooner or later some religious lunatic is going to get their grubby little paws on those things and it’s game over.
Nothing new
Hasn’t the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists been making similar predictions for decades now?